Al eerder zijn er verschillende compressietechnieken gemaakt die MP3 zouden moeten gaan vervangen (bijvoorbeeld VQF en MPE). Slashdot doet nu melding van weer een nieuwe compressietechniek: Ogg Vorbis. De makers denken zelf dat ze MP3 in de komende jaren in de schaduw van hun product kunnen krijgen, door de betere kwaliteit en kleinere bestanden die Ogg Vorbis maakt. Ook het "open source"-principe zal hieraan bijdragen:
The Vorbis codec is a lossy audio compression codec similar to mp3, but we're shooting for better performance (lower bitrates for a given level of quality) as well as keeping it totally Free as in Beer and Speech. I started work on Vorbis a week or two after Fraunhofer sent out 'cease and desist' letters to several free mp3 encoder projects in the fall of '98. At that point, it was clear the worst case was happening; the squeeze was on by commercial entities to not only dominate the legal distribution of music, but the underlying technology as well. A 'free license' to owned technology means nothing (and that's why Real and Windows Media are also worthless as infrastructure to us).
Honestly, I don't think we're going to 100% replace mp3 (people still use RAR for Christ's sake). I lay better than even odds on us eclipsing mp3 in the next year if the licensing picture stays the same. We also intend to have 80-96 kbps stereo streams that sound better than mp3 128 by that point, so people (and businesses) won't exactly have to give anything up to save money. Also expect hardware support soon, possibly by end of year if things go smoothly.