Silicon Investor heeft een artikel gepost met verwachtingen voor de financiŽle positie van AMD in het vierde kwartaal. Aangenomen wordt dat het verlies van AMD mee zal vallen. Verder wordt verwacht dat AMD een partner (Motorola) binnen zal halen voor het verkopen van produktiecapaciteit in hypermoderne (en dure) Dresden fab:
We are reducing our estimated loss for the current quarter on higher K7 unit assumptions. We believe that AMD's 4Q has gotten off to a stronger than expected start with K7 unit shipments likely to exceed earlier guidance. With AMD's products much more focused on consumer and SOHO users we believe that AMD stands to benefit from the expected seasonal strength as well as benefiting from increasing shipments of higher ASP K7s.
Although we are not changing our estimates to reflect it, we believe it is also increasingly likely that AMD will sign a partner for its Dresden fab. Although the exact type of arrangement is hard to predict, we believe that the Company is likely to sign a partner to take part ownership of the fab. Successful completion of this type of deal could dramatically reduce AMD's carrying costs associated with Dresden and provide significantly earnings leverage in 2000 and into 2001.
While we are not changing our rating, with AMD likely to have a better than expected quarter and with the possibility of significant financial leverage we believe the stock could move outside of its current trading range and move into the mid-to-upper-mid $20s.
[...] Strategically, AMD's challenges may come down to one of scale. In a $35 billion market that requires $2 billion fab investments to be made every few years, the ability to fund these efforts is problematic. With AMD's microprocessor manufacturing efforts concentrated in only one fab, fab 25 in Texas, its difficulties are multiplied. Specifically, while Intel has the ability to migrate both processors and processes in multiple fabs, AMD has had to make all of these changes in a single location. Because of this, its manufacturing risks have been multiplied. Looking into 2000, when Dresden comes on line, we believe this could provide the company with in important benefit in that for the first time it will have two mainstream state-of-the-art fabs in which to migrate both processes and products simultaneously without having to concentrate its efforts all in one location.
For AMD, the introduction of the K7 continues to represent a critical product transition for AMD. Success at positioning the K7 as a mainstream/high-end processor is critical to AMD's profitable participation in the PC/workstation/serer market. While we believe that the K7 is technically a very good product, we believe the challenge of AMD moving "up-market" will be significant with the burden of proof clearly on the company.